Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Lewis Melican

Sydney · @ STK

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

44% (4/9)

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Avg

4.7

5.4

L10

4.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Enter odds and a stake to track this bet. You'll settle it by hand on the bets page — nothing grades itself.

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lewisvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

11.3Disposals379.3

6.7Kicks220.4

3.9Marks100.9

1.6Tackles50.0

0.0Clearances34.4

1.6Inside 50s52.1

4.6Contested Poss.123.7

0.0Goals12.4

Disposals

Lewis11.3

STK379.3

Kicks

Lewis6.7

STK220.4

Marks

Lewis3.9

STK100.9

Tackles

Lewis1.6

STK50.0

Clearances

Lewis0.0

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Lewis1.6

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Lewis4.6

STK123.7

Goals

Lewis0.0

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Handballs

158.9per game · league avg 155.5

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands3.4(8)-0.1

Everywhere else3.5(82)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)2.3(3)-1.1

Dry games3.5(87)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.