Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Chad Warner

Sydney · @ STK

3.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

39% (7/18)

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Avg

3.1

3.4

L10

3.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Chadvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

22.8Disposals379.3

13.9Kicks220.4

3.1Marks100.9

3.6Tackles50.0

4.2Clearances34.4

6.6Inside 50s52.1

9.2Contested Poss.123.7

1.4Goals12.4

Disposals

Chad22.8

STK379.3

Kicks

Chad13.9

STK220.4

Marks

Chad3.1

STK100.9

Tackles

Chad3.6

STK50.0

Clearances

Chad4.2

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Chad6.6

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Chad9.2

STK123.7

Goals

Chad1.4

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Marks

100.9per game · league avg 93.0

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands3.1(13)-0.4

Everywhere else3.4(113)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)3.6(7)+0.2

Dry games3.4(119)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.