Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Chad Warner

Sydney · @ STK

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

50% (9/18)

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Avg

3.6

5.6

L10

4.0

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ STK

Enter odds and a stake to track this bet. You'll settle it by hand on the bets page — nothing grades itself.

Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:05Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Chadvs all playersStatSTK concedePer game

22.8Disposals379.3

13.9Kicks220.4

3.1Marks100.9

3.6Tackles50.0

4.2Clearances34.4

6.6Inside 50s52.1

9.2Contested Poss.123.7

1.4Goals12.4

Disposals

Chad22.8

STK379.3

Kicks

Chad13.9

STK220.4

Marks

Chad3.1

STK100.9

Tackles

Chad3.6

STK50.0

Clearances

Chad4.2

STK34.4

Inside 50s

Chad6.6

STK52.1

Contested Poss.

Chad9.2

STK123.7

Goals

Chad1.4

STK12.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

STK concede · Tackles

50.0per game · league avg 56.9

#17 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands3.8(13)+0.2

Everywhere else3.7(113)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.9(7)+0.2

Dry games3.7(119)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.