Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jordon Butts

Adelaide · @ ESS

4.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

67% (6/9)

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Avg

4.9

4.2

L10

4.9

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jordonvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

11.2Disposals398.8

6.3Kicks232.6

4.4Marks116.9

0.6Tackles50.5

0.4Clearances33.3

0.7Inside 50s55.1

4.4Contested Poss.121.4

0.1Goals15.0

Disposals

Jordon11.2

ESS398.8

Kicks

Jordon6.3

ESS232.6

Marks

Jordon4.4

ESS116.9

Tackles

Jordon0.6

ESS50.5

Clearances

Jordon0.4

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Jordon0.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Jordon4.4

ESS121.4

Goals

Jordon0.1

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands3.7(10)-0.1

Everywhere else3.8(84)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(10)-0.9

Dry games3.9(84)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.