Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

MEL

Brandon Smith

Melbourne Storm · @ WST

1.5 TBO —U —

Hit rate

30% (3/10)

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Avg

1.1

1.4

L10

1.1

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ WST

Game conditionsCommBank Stadium · SydneyRound 22 · 2026-08-02 16:05☁ 17.9°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Brandonvs all playersStatWST concedePer game

56.6Run Metres1749.4

1.1Tackle Breaks33.3

22.3Tackles339.1

0.1Tries5.3

0.4Try Assists4.6

0.2Line Breaks6.6

0.2Offloads9.1

19.7Post Contact Metres528.1

Run Metres

Brandon56.6

WST1749.4

Tackle Breaks

Brandon1.1

WST33.3

Tackles

Brandon22.3

WST339.1

Tries

Brandon0.1

WST5.3

Try Assists

Brandon0.4

WST4.6

Line Breaks

Brandon0.2

WST6.6

Offloads

Brandon0.2

WST9.1

Post Contact Metres

Brandon19.7

WST528.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

WST concede · Tackle Breaks

33.3per game · league avg 32.6

#8 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Tackle Breaks

At CommBank Stadium1.3(6)-0.7

Everywhere else2.0(95)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks

Wet games (≥1mm)2.2(9)+0.3

Dry games1.9(92)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.