AFL
PProjectPunt
Bailey Smith
Bailey Smith
Geelong · @ MEL
4.5 MKO U
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
enter odds to compare
Avg
4.2
L5
4.0
L10
3.6
High
8
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
3GCSMar 067FREMar 142ADEMar 265HAWApr 064WCEApr 128WBDApr 177PORApr 250NORMay 026COLMay 093BRIMay 142SYDMay 235CARMay 293ADEJun 043GCSJun 123BRIJul 025GWSJul 116STKJul 16?MELJul 244.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 20 @ MEL
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-24 19:4011.3°C0mm (0%)🌬 16.3 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Bailey32.4
MEL382.0
Kicks
Bailey19.8
MEL220.8
Marks
Bailey4.2
MEL101.2
Tackles
Bailey4.9
MEL51.0
Clearances
Bailey5.5
MEL35.6
Inside 50s
Bailey7.2
MEL52.3
Contested poss.
Bailey11.4
MEL129.3
Goals
Bailey0.5
MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Marks

101.2per game · league avg 93.0
#5 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At M.C.G.4.9(11)+0.5
Everywhere else4.4(29)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(2)-0.6
Dry games4.6(38)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.