AFL
PProjectPunt
Bailey Smith
Bailey Smith
Geelong · @ MEL
4.5 TKO U
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
enter odds to compare
Avg
4.9
L5
4.8
L10
4.7
High
11
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
2GCSMar 064FREMar 1410ADEMar 265HAWApr 065WCEApr 127WBDApr 173PORApr 251NORMay 022COLMay 0911BRIMay 142SYDMay 237CARMay 295ADEJun 046GCSJun 129BRIJul 023GWSJul 111STKJul 16?MELJul 244.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 20 @ MEL
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-24 19:4011.3°C0mm (0%)🌬 16.3 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Bailey32.4
MEL382.0
Kicks
Bailey19.8
MEL220.8
Marks
Bailey4.2
MEL101.2
Tackles
Bailey4.9
MEL51.0
Clearances
Bailey5.5
MEL35.6
Inside 50s
Bailey7.2
MEL52.3
Contested poss.
Bailey11.4
MEL129.3
Goals
Bailey0.5
MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackles

51.0per game · league avg 56.9
#15 of 18 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At M.C.G.4.2(11)-1.0
Everywhere else5.2(29)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.5(2)-3.6
Dry games5.1(38)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.