Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast · vs MEL

9.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

40% (6/15)

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Avg

9.6

10.4

L10

10.2

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 17.7°C☂ 0mm (28%)🌬 13.9 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Danielvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

20.4Disposals382.0

10.8Kicks220.8

4.1Marks101.2

2.6Tackles51.0

0.4Clearances35.6

2.7Inside 50s52.3

3.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.1Goals13.1

Disposals

Daniel20.4

MEL382.0

Kicks

Daniel10.8

MEL220.8

Marks

Daniel4.1

MEL101.2

Tackles

Daniel2.6

MEL51.0

Clearances

Daniel0.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Daniel2.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Daniel3.5

MEL129.3

Goals

Daniel0.1

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Handballs

161.2per game · league avg 155.5

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Carrara9.6(13)+1.3

Everywhere else8.4(22)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)11.7(3)+3.1

Dry games8.6(32)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.